The interest rate on 3-month dollar-denominated deposits held in banks outside the US. It serves as a valuable benchmark for determining interest rate differentials to help estimate exchange rates. To illustrate USD/JPY as a theoretical example, the greater the interest rate differential in favor of the eurodollar against the euroyen deposit, the more likely USD/JPY will receive a boost. Sometimes, this relation does not hold due to the confluence of other factors.
- 10-year Treasury Note
FX markets usually refer to the 10-year note when comparing its yield with that on similar bonds overseas, namely the Euro (German 10-year bund), Japan (10-year JGB) and the UK (10-year gilt). The spread differential (difference in yields) between the yield on 10-year US Treasury note and that on non US bonds, impacts the exchange rate. A higher US yield usually benefits the US dollar against foreign currencies.
- Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
The U.S Central Bank has full independence in setting monetary policy to achieve maximum non-inflationary growth. The Fed's chief policy signals are: open market operations, the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds rate.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
The FOMC is responsible for making decisions on monetary policy, including the crucial interest rate announcements it makes 8 times a year. The 12-member committee is made up of 7 members of the Board of Governors; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; while the remaining four seats carry one-year term each, in a rotating selection of the presidents of the 11 other Reserve Banks.
- Treasury
The US Treasury is responsible for issuing government debt and for making decisions on the fiscal budget. The Treasury has no say in monetary policy, but its statements on the dollar have an major influence on the currency.
- Economic Data
The most important economic data items released in the US are: labor report (payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings), CPI, PPI, GDP, international trade, ECI, NAPM, productivity, industrial production, housing starts, housing permits and consumer confidence.
- Stock Market
The three major stock indices are the Dow Jones Industrials Index (Dow), S&P 500, and NASDAQ. The Dow is the most influential index on the dollar. Since the mid-1990s, the index has shown a strong positive correlation with the greenback as foreign investors purchased US equities. Three major forces affect the Dow: 1) Corporate earnings, forecast and actual; 2) Interest rate expectations and; 3) Global considerations. Consequently, these factors channel their way through the dollar
- Cross Rate Effect
The dollar's value against one currency is sometimes impacted by another currency pair (exchange rate) that may not involve the dollar. To illustrate, a sharp rise in the yen against the euro (falling EUR/JPY) could cause a general decline in the euro, including a fall in EUR/USD.
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